johannes.wtf

What a stupid poker game.

Assuming there is an sensibility in the play the hope is that Europe's unity in the topic of the Brexit breaks. Theresa May once had the EU close to breaking unity (before deadline was extended voices from member states became louder) but even a breaking unity won't really help Britain, except spreading chaos all over the continent. So what's the endgame there? The only alternatives to a "backstop" would be taking Ireland out of Europe as well or Northern Ireland out of the United Kingdom. (the later was the initial EU position essentially - by creating a customs border in the Irish Sea, while negotiations allowed all of UK to stay in the regulatory framework such a backstop is not in EU's interest)

The other part of the poker play is happening in Westminster: By going all in on hard Brexit (cabinet choices, "war cabinet", publicity campaign, ...) Johnson creates pressure on no-hard-Brexit MPs to act (law says that by nobody acting there will be a hard Brexit on Oct 31st) Such an action would require Tory backbenchers to cooperate with Labour and potentially others to come up with a resolution of some form (with the complications that in British parliament the government primarily decides on the topics of debate - via their Leader of the House, which is a post now held by Jacob Rees-Mogg) If such a thing comes together he can plausibly claim "I wanted to deliver Brexit" and create his Dolchstoßlegende.

Johnson is all in and can't fold anymore. Mess will be there.